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Foreign Policy Articles Russia Tries to Play Both Sides
Rand H. Fishbein,
Ph.D. Sitting in his office in the Kremlin, Russian President Vladimir Putin must be mildly amused to see the United States and its allies in the throes of their own international crisis. Now, for once, the spotlight is not on Moscow. But it should be. President Bush has asked for Putin’s assistance in the fight against terrorism and has even extended an invitation for Russia to join the coalition against Osama bin Laden and his backers. Understandably, the Russian president is reluctant to do anything that will strengthen the hand of his superpower rival. Still, he knows when it is important to be seen as a team player. And now is just such a time. Putin will exact a price for his participation in the coalition. Kremlin support will not come cheaply. Russians have long memories. It was not long ago that Putin and his predecessor, Boris Yeltsin, looked to the West for support in their war against Chechen terrorists. To their great displeasure they were given the cold shoulder. Even as bombs were going off in Moscow and Russian citizens were being kidnapped, the Kremlin was unable to elicit a sympathetic ear. In fact, many in the West, appalled by the Russian carnage in Grozny, openly sided with the rebels. With few options open to him, Yeltsin decided to invade the Chechen Republic in the hope of eradicating the terrorist threat. The enterprise quickly turned sour as it became clear that the much-diminished Russian army was not up to the task. Moreover, the Chechen fighters proved more than a match for their heavily armed Russian adversary, using many of the same guerrilla tactics that had so traumatized the Soviet army during the Afghanistan campaign. The result was a scorched earth policy that devastated Chechnya and left a reported 3,000 Russian soldiers dead. The Kremlin is still trying to recover from the social and political upheaval brought on by its second mini-Vietnam. Playing Both Sides So what is President Putin to do? He certainly does not want to become embroiled in another conflict that neither his country, nor his army, can afford. Once burned, twice shy best characterizes the Russian view of Afghanistan. No doubt the president is concerned about the threat posed by Islamic radicalism in the Muslim republics of the former Soviet Union. As an old KGB hand he understands how a political contagion can spread through a population until it becomes too great to contain. After all, it was the spread of democratic idealism that led, in part, to the collapse of Soviet communism. By the same token, Putin must be loath to help the United States out of its current predicament. Quietly, he must be wishing "a pox on both their houses" for the way in which the Bush administration has dismissed his objections to missile defense and now looks to expand NATO even closer to Russia’s borders. Moscow cannot be pleased to have U.S. troops operate out of former Soviet bases in Uzbekistan and to know that former republics like Kirghizistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Ukraine have offered their assistance to Washington. This is not the new world order the Kremlin leadership was hoping for, nor is it the legacy that Putin wishes to leave his nation. For the moment, Putin must control his anger and watch as the latest chapter in ‘the Great Game’ plays out on Russia’s doorstep. There will be a time and a place for the Kremlin to reassert itself. In the meantime, its leaders must be content to watch from the sidelines as America gets drawn into the Asian morass. With the onset of the harsh Afghan winter, Putin must be wondering if America will succumb to the same fate as Napoleon and Hitler, whose armies so confidently entered Asia only to be consumed by its vastness. To be fair, President Bush and his advisers have to be given some credit for the sheer audacity of the request. Did they really think that Putin would place his country at the disposal of the American administration? Does Bush truly believe that Russia wants the American coalition to succeed and for the U.S. to rise out of the current crisis stronger and more resolute than before? Not in a million Siberian winters! Sunk along with the Russian submarine Kursk some 14 months ago was what remained of Russian military pride. Impoverished, demoralized and rusting away, Russia’s armed forces stand humiliated by the spectacle of American military prowess and its dazzling display of high-technology war. A triumphant American campaign of the sort waged during the Gulf War is certainly not in the Kremlin’s interest. In fact, it is safe to bet that Moscow would go to great lengths to prevent it, while secretly hoping it leaves the Muslim extremists battered and bloody. But if the Russians are anything, they are a practical, if not a Machiavellian, people. Playing both sides against the middle is nothing new for Moscow. While refusing to cooperate extensively with the U.S. military campaign, the Kremlin has offered to provide some military assistance and humanitarian aid to the resistance fighters of the Northern Alliance, who are allied with Washington. The Kremlin also has indicated its willingness to support the U.S. on the diplomatic front. A Grain of Salt This appearance of solidarity should be taken with a grain of salt, however. For all its bravado, Russia is not providing the U.S. with overflight rights and will not allow the U.S. to conduct military operations from its soil. The level of Russia’s commitment to the coalition is yet to be determined. Putin’s offer of assistance is Russia’s fig leaf, a way to appear helpful at a time when the Kremlin is looking for more Western aid to prop up its failing economy. The global recession has cut hard into the already low Russian standard of living. When the dust settles, Putin does not want Russia’s opponents in the U.S. to say he was completely unhelpful. It is a calculation similar to the one made by Stalin at Yalta. Just days before WWII ended in the Pacific, the Soviet Union entered the theater, only to claim the Kurile Islands as a prize without having to expend any effort to earn them. Likewise, the republics of the former Soviet Union are hoping for similar American largess in the aftermath of the fighting. In offering to assist the United States, these governments are well aware of the massive aid packages organized by the U.S. following the Gulf War for those nations affected by economic dislocation. Egypt, for instance, had $4 billion in debt canceled by the IMF and $2.5 billion rescheduled by the Paris Club. To secure Pakistan’s cooperation in the latest conflict, the U.S. has offered to reschedule its $379 million debt, lift economic sanctions, and reinstate arms sales. To those willing to play, the U.S. aid window is open for business. At the same time Russia is publicly offering its support to Washington, reports continue to circulate that supplies of ammunition are moving from Russian warehouses to the Taliban and its associates in Afghanistan. It is likely that Russia is also providing intelligence to bin Laden’s handlers and is probably receiving some valuable information on U.S. ground movements in return. Washington should not be surprised if light weapons, and possibly even artillery, communications gear, and other logistical supplies are transferred to the enemy from Russian front companies in the coming weeks and months. This way, Moscow can claim plausible deniability while still maintaining ties to the Islamic radicals. It is a technique perfected by the Kremlin, which in the past has turned a blind eye to those smuggling enriched uranium abroad from government-owned research laboratories, weapons bunkers and processing facilities. Western experts suspect some of this radiological material has reached terrorist groups and, most certainly, Iran. After all, while Russia may abhor terrorism directed against its own citizens, it has little problem giving support to terrorist sponsors like Iran and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). For Russia, as with its Soviet predecessor, terrorism conducted by so-called national liberation movements is just another tool in the diplomatic toolbox, to be used, when needed, to punish the insolent West. A Missed Opportunity Nearly a decade ago, Congress provided funds and direction to the Clinton administration to initiate a program of conventional weapons demilitarization in the former Soviet Union. The initiative was called "Project Peace." Experts warned that it would be this material that would fuel the wars of the next century. And in places like Bosnia, Kosovo and the Palestinian territories, it did -- and does. For Russia’s cash-strapped military, overseas sales are one of the only sources of income. But, in a slap to Congress, the Clinton Defense Department chose not to pursue the program despite pleas from Members to make conventional weapons demilitarization a major focus of a U.S. war-prevention strategy. Now, once again, the U.S. is opposing an enemy armed, and trained, by our Kremlin friends and their surrogates. In planning the next phase of its campaign against terrorism, the Bush administration should be alert to the wily ways of its old nemesis. As any hiker knows, one should be careful in turning over rocks; you might not like what you find. To some, the president of Russia is Vladimir Putin. To others, he is that rascal Putin – or Ras-Putin, for short.
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2001/10/12/123218.shtml |
